Identification

Author

Burke DS, Epstein JM, Cummings DA, Parker JI, Cline KC, et al.

Title

Individual-based computational modeling of Smallpox epidemic control strategies

Year

2006

Publication type

Article

Journal

Academic Emergency Medicine

Created

2014-08-18 22:06:30+00:00

Modified

2016-08-09 19:05:07.294291+00:00

Details

Volume

13

Number

11

Access

Language

English

URL http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17085740
DOI

10.1197/j.aem.2006.07.017

Accessed

2016-07-13

Extended information

Abstract

In response to concerns about possible bioterrorism, the authors developed an individual-based (or ‘‘agent-based’’) computational model of smallpox epidemic transmission and control. The model explicitly represents an ‘‘artificial society’’ of individual human beings, each implemented as a distinct object, or data structure in a computer program. These agents interact locally with one another in code-represented social units such as homes, workplaces, schools, and hospitals. Over many iterations, these microinteractions generate large-scale macroscopic phenomena of fundamental interest such as the course of an epidemic in space and time. Model variables (incubation periods, clinical disease expression, contagiousness, and physical mobility) were assigned following realistic values agreed on by an advisory group of experts on smallpox. Eight response scenarios were evaluated at two epidemic scales, one being an introduction of ten smallpox cases into a 6,000-person town and the other an introduction of 500 smallpox cases into a 50,000-person town. The modeling exercise showed that contact tracing and vaccination of household, workplace, and school contacts, along with prompt reactive vaccination of hospital workers and isolation
of diagnosed cases, could contain smallpox at both epidemic scales examined.