Identification

Author

Jones AE, Morse AP

Title

Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa

Year

2012

Publication type

Article

Journal

Gephysical Research Letters

Created

2014-08-04 18:50:52+00:00

Modified

2016-07-13 17:01:44.662135+00:00

Details

Volume

39

Number

23

Access

Language

English

URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054040/abstract
DOI

10.1029/2012GL054040

Accessed

2016-07-13

Extended information

Abstract

This study examines the performance of malaria-relevant climate variables from the ENSEMBLES seasonal ensemble re-forecasts for sub-Saharan West Africa, using a dynamic malaria model to transform temperature and rainfall forecasts into simulated malaria incidence and verifying these forecasts against simulations obtained by driving the malaria model with General Circulation Model-derived reanalysis. Two subregions of forecast skill are identified: the highlands of Cameroon, where low temperatures limit simulated malaria during the forecast period and interannual variability in simulated malaria is closely linked to variability in temperature, and northern Nigeria/southern Niger, where simulated malaria variability is strongly associated with rainfall variability during the peak rain months.