Thomson M, Indeje M, Connor S, Dilley M, Ward N
Malaria early warning in Kenya and seasonal climate forecasts
The Abuja Declaration requires 60% of malaria epidemics to be detected within 2 weeks of inception. Malaria early warning systems (MEWS) that incorporate vulnerability assessment (eg, immune status), seasonal climate forecasts, weather monitoring, and case surveillance may help achieve this target.1 Simon Hay and colleagues (May 17, p 1705)2 assess MEWS in a retrospective analysis of malaria epidemics in the Kenyan highlands in the summer of 2002. Encouragingly, they document the value of rainfall estimates in predicting epidemics in this region.