Identification

Author

Thomson M, Indeje M, Connor S, Dilley M, Ward N

Title

Malaria early warning in Kenya and seasonal climate forecasts

Year

2003

Publication type

Article

Journal

The Lancet

Created

2014-07-07 21:17:49+00:00

Modified

2016-07-13 16:33:14.011883+00:00

Details

Volume

362

Number

9383

Access

Language

English

URL http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2803%2914135-9/fulltext
DOI

10.1016/S0140-6736(03)14135-9

Accessed

2016-07-13

Extended information

Abstract

The Abuja Declaration requires 60% of malaria epidemics to be detected within 2 weeks of inception. Malaria early warning systems (MEWS) that incorporate vulnerability assessment (eg, immune status), seasonal climate forecasts, weather monitoring, and case surveillance may help achieve this target.1 Simon Hay and colleagues (May 17, p 1705)2 assess MEWS in a retrospective analysis of malaria epidemics in the Kenyan highlands in the summer of 2002. Encouragingly, they document the value of rainfall estimates in predicting epidemics in this region.