Identification

Author

Meltzer MI, Cox NJ, Fukuda K

Title

The economic impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Priorities for intervention

Year

1999

Publication type

Article

Journal

Emerging Infectious Diseases

Created

2014-02-04 20:44:12+00:00

Modified

2016-07-27 17:02:58.281792+00:00

Details

Volume

5

Number

5

Access

Language

English

URL http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2627723/
DOI

10.3201/eid0505.990507

Accessed

2016-06-28

Extended information

Abstract

We estimated the possible effects of the next influenza pandemic in the United States and analyzed the economic impact of vaccine-based interventions. Using death rates, hospitalization data, and outpatient visits, we estimated 89,000 to 207,000 deaths; 314,000 to 734,000 hospitalizations; 18 to 42 million outpatient visits; and 20 to 47 million additional illnesses. Patients at high risk (15% of the population) would account for approximately 84% of all deaths. The estimated economic impact would be US$71.3 to $166.5 billion, excluding disruptions to commerce and society. At $21 per vaccinee, we project a net savings to society if persons in all age groups are vaccinated. At $62 per vaccinee and at gross attack rates of 25%, we project net losses if persons not at high risk for complications are vaccinated. Vaccinating 60% of the population would generate the highest economic returns but may not be possible within the time required for vaccine effectiveness, especially if two doses of vaccine are required.