Identification

Author

Abrams JY, Copeland JR, Tauxe RV, Date KA, Belay ED, et al.

Title

Supplemental: Real-time modelling used for outbreak management during a cholera epidemic, Haiti, 2010-2011

Year

2012

Publication type

Article

Journal

Epidemiology & Infection

Created

2013-11-15 16:17:42+00:00

Modified

2016-07-13 21:09:11.810173+00:00

Details

Volume

141

Number

6

Access

Language

English

URL http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=8901561&fileId=S0950268812001793
DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268812001793

Accessed

2016-07-13

Extended information

Abstract

The emergence of epidemic cholera in post-earthquake Haiti portended a public health disaster of uncertain magnitude. In order to coordinate relief efforts in an environment with limited healthcare infrastructure and stretched resources, timely and realistic projections of the extent of the cholera outbreak were crucial. Projections were shared with Government and partner organizations beginning 5 days after the first reported case and were updated using progressively more advanced methods as more surveillance data became available. The first projection estimated that 105 000 cholera cases would occur in the first year. Subsequent projections using different methods estimated up to 652 000 cases and 163 000–247 000 hospitalizations during the first year. Current surveillance data show these projections to have provided reasonable approximations of the observed epidemic. Providing the real-time projections allowed Haitian ministries and external aid organizations to better plan and implement response measures during the evolving epidemic.