Identification

Author

Chao DL, Halloran ME, Obenchain VJ, Longini Jr. IM

Title

FluTE, a publicly available stochastic inluenza epidemic simulation model

Year

2010

Publication type

Article

Journal

PLOS Computational Biology

Created

2013-10-29 20:56:24+00:00

Modified

2016-08-04 18:05:24.893939+00:00

Details

Volume

6

Access

Language

English

URL http://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pcbi.1000656
DOI

10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000656

Accessed

2016-06-27

Extended information

Abstract

Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development.