Background: Dengue is a mosquito-borne infectious disease that constitutes a growing global threat with the habitat
expansion of its vectors Aedes aegyti and A. albopictus and increasing urbanization. With no effective treatment and limited
success of vector control, dengue vaccines constitute the best control measure for the foreseeable future. With four
interacting dengue serotypes, the development of an effective vaccine has been a challenge. Several dengue vaccine
candidates are currently being tested in clinical trials. Before the widespread introduction of a new dengue vaccine, one
needs to consider how best to use limited supplies of vaccine given the complex dengue transmission dynamics and the
immunological interaction among the four dengue serotypes.
Methodology/Principal Findings: We developed an individual-level (including both humans and mosquitoes), stochastic
simulation model for dengue transmission and control in a semi-rural area in Thailand. We calibrated the model to dengue
serotype-specific infection, illness and hospitalization data from Thailand. Our simulations show that a realistic roll-out plan,
starting with young children then covering progressively older individuals in following seasons, could reduce local
transmission of dengue to low levels. Simulations indicate that this strategy could avert about 7,700 uncomplicated dengue
fever cases and 220 dengue hospitalizations per 100,000 people at risk over a ten-year period.
Conclusions/Significance: Vaccination will have an important role in controlling dengue. According to our modeling results,
children should be prioritized to receive vaccine, but adults will also need to be vaccinated if one wants to reduce
community-wide dengue transmission to low levels.