Identification

Author

Keeling MJ, Woodhouse MEJ, Shaw DJ, Matthews L, Chase-Topping M, et al.

Title

Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: Stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape

Year

2001

Publication type

Article

Journal

Science

Modified

2016-07-13 19:59:49.911151+00:00

Details

Volume

294

Number

5543

Access

Language

English

URL http://wildfire.stat.ucla.edu/pdflibrary/keeling_2001_DynamicsFootMouth.pdf
DOI

10.1126/science.1065973

Accessed

2016-06-06

Extended information

Abstract

Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We developed an individual farm-based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution. We show that the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The other key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess the history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of control strategies, and general implications for disease dynamics in space and time.