Identification

Author

Chan EH, Brewer TF, Madoff LC, Pollack MP, Sonricker AL, et al.

Title

Global capacity for emerging infectious disease detection

Year

2010

Publication type

Article

Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Modified

2016-07-13 19:20:28.969404+00:00

Details

Volume

107

Number

50

Pages

21701-201706

Access

Language

English

URL http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21115835
DOI

10.1073/pnas.1006219107

Accessed

2016-05-09

Extended information

Abstract

The increasing number of emerging infectious disease events that have spread internationally, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the 2009 pandemic A/H1N1, highlight the need for improvements in global outbreak surveillance. It is expected that the proliferation of Internet-based reports has resulted in greater communication and improved surveillance and reporting frameworks, especially with the revision of the World Health Organization's (WHO) International Health Regulations (IHR 2005), which went into force in 2007. However, there has been no global quantitative assessment of whether and how outbreak detection and communication processes have actually changed over time. In this study, we analyzed the entire WHO public record of Disease Outbreak News reports from 1996 to 2009 to characterize spatial-temporal trends in the timeliness of outbreak discovery and public communication about the outbreak relative to the estimated outbreak start date. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses show that overall, the timeliness of outbreak discovery improved by 7.3% [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.073, 95% CI (1.038; 1.110)] per year, and public communication improved by 6.2% [HR = 1.062, 95% CI (1.028; 1.096)] per year. However, the degree of improvement varied by geographic region; the only WHO region with statistically significant (alpha = 0.05) improvement in outbreak discovery was the Western Pacific region [HR = 1.102 per year, 95% CI (1.008; 1.205)], whereas the Eastern Mediterranean [HR = 1.201 per year, 95% CI (1.066; 1.353)] and Western Pacific regions [HR = 1.119 per year, 95% CI (1.025; 1.221)] showed improvement in public communication. These findings provide quantitative historical assessment of timeliness in infectious disease detection and public reporting of outbreaks.