Identification

Name

Cambridge-Edinburgh Model

Created

2014-08-22 14:45:18+00:00

Modified

2015-11-21 14:37:22.037980+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

The Cambridge–Edinburgh model is an explicit spatial model, which is initialized with the location of all farms in the UK and their livestock, as recorded at the last census. As such, the starting conditions are the same as those of other models, but this model has a more simple and transparent transmission mechanism, leading to fewer parameters and easier parameterization. Transmission is modelled as a simple function of disease between infectious and susceptible farms, compounded by the number and species of animals on each.

Question

What are the possible effects of various control efforts on an FMD outbreak?

Purpose

Forecasting

Scope

Disease and Location

Goals
(1) Consequence management
(2) Early warning
Decision support

Yes

Based on
Simulation type
(1) Compartmental
Simulation update
(1) Stochastic
Methods
(1) Compartments/SIR
(2) Statistics/Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
Products
(1) Control effort effectiveness
Documents
(1) Document Keeling MJ, Woodhouse MEJ, Shaw DJ, Matthews L, Chase-Topping M, et al. : Dynamics of the 2001 U… (2001)
Notes
(2) Document Keeling MJ, Woolhouse ME, May RM, Davies G, Grenfell BT: Modelling vaccination strategies agains… (2003)
Notes
General notes

A stochastic Monte-Carlo species-specific spatial farm-based state-transition simulation model with distance-based transmission based purely on farm susceptibility and infectiousness (compounded by herd size) parameterised from contact tracing data. Focussing on spatial structure the model has fewer parameters than those with more complex transmission descriptions (on the grounds of insufficient reliable data) allowing for relatively fast simulation. No explicit modelling of logistics. Model results are highly stochastic suggesting epidemics are highly variable and making local scale predictions difficult. This model was deployed during the UK 2001 FMD outbreak to assess the impacts of various potential control efforts.

Application

Diseases
(1) Foot-and-mouth disease
Locations
(1) Location Europe
Status
(2) Location London
Status
(3) Location United Kingdom
Status
(4) Location Akron
Status
(5) Location Los Alamos
Status
(6) Location Montgomery
Status
(7) Location Alabama
Status

Utility and readiness

Readiness

Deployed

Organizations
(1) Organization Warwick University
Role
(2) Organization Edinburgh University
Role
(3) Organization University of Cambridge
Role

Availability

Input