Identification

Name

Imperial Model

Created

2013-05-31 16:32:07+00:00

Modified

2016-04-06 14:08:26.243837+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

The Imperial Model is strongly based on traditional SIR-type differential equations. It treats the farm as the individual unit and classifies each farm by its infectious status. The initial model was formulated was formulated during the first few weeks of the 2001 FMD epidemic and was a crude approximation, ignoring farm differences and only differentiating between local and long-range transmission. This model also sacrifices many of the details present in more complex models for the ability rapidly and robustly to parameterize the equations from epidemic data. However, whereas standard SIR models ignore all spatial structure, the imperial model attempts to capture the clustering of infection (and hence the increased competition for susceptible farms) by assuming that all farms can weakly transmit infection at random over long distances but can only strongly have a limited number of local connections (estimated between 5.5 and 8.3). Therefore, this model not only considers the number of farms in each state, but also the number of pairs of locally connected farms through which the effects of clustering can be captured.

Question

How will FMD spread amongst farms?

Purpose

Forecasting

Scope

Disease and Location

Goals
(1) Consequence management
Decision support

Yes

Based on
Simulation type
(1) Compartmental
Simulation update
(1) Deterministic
Methods
(1) Compartments/SIR
Products
(1) Disease incidence
(2) Science of transmission
Documents
(1) Document Kermack WO, McKendrick AG: A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics (1927)
Notes
(2) Document Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Anderson RM: Transmission integrity and impact of control policies on … (2001)
Notes
(3) Document Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Anderson RM: The Foot-and-Mouth epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of … (2001)
Notes
(4) Document Keeling MJ: Models of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (2005)
Notes

Application

Diseases
(1) Foot-and-mouth disease
Locations
(1) Location Europe
Status
(2) Location United Kingdom
Status

Utility and readiness

Maintenance status

Unknown

Readiness

Deployed

Organizations
(1) Organization Imperial College
Role Funding support

Availability

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name Cost of euthanasia per animal
Category Financial Records
Subject Environment: Economics
URL
Notes