Identification

Name

GlobalCure

Created

2014-05-05 20:31:15+00:00

Modified

2015-12-04 00:07:14.889049+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

The objective of GlobalCure is to provide knowledge development and decision support for issues of global scope. This is a modeling and simulation framework. It incorporates multiple model types that include network-based models, differential-equation-based models and agent-based models

Question

What are the impacts of different mitigative actions on the global spread of a contagious disease?

Purpose

Assessment

Scope

Disease and Location

Goals
(1) Consequence management
(2) Situational awareness
Decision support

No

Based on
Products
(1) Control effort effectiveness
(2) Epidemic Spread

Application

Diseases
(1) Influenza

Utility and readiness

Maintenance status

Active

Readiness

Configurable Generic Framework

Organizations
(1) Organization United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
Role Funding support
(2) Organization Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)
Role Developer
Independently tested

No

Compared to model

Yes

Compared to reality

Not Applicable

Verification & validation notes

Model has been benchmarked against Longini's original model as well as compared to data on the 1968 Hong Kong Influenza pandemic. It was also used during the early stages of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, though a full post-event comparison has not been done. The reason for this is that while the disease parameters are fairly easy to find in the literature, the detailed mitigative responses of the 200+ countries involved and the behavioral changes of people themselves are more difficult to document. We've got many mitigative knobs to twist in the model, enough in fact that we could likely match just about any scenario arbitrarily well, but without detailed, ground-truth knowledge of when and to what those knobs were actually set, there's not a lot of value in a full on comparison. Is a difference the result of an inherent aspect of the model, or a lack of understanding about the mitigative actions a region took and their effectiveness?

Sensitivity analysis

No

Uncertainty documented

No

Availability

Computational platform

Mac

Implementation language

Java

Developer contacted

Yes

Adaptation cost

Hours

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name 2005 air traffic volumes
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes
(2) Name Population data, disease parameter data
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes