Identification

Name

ARIMA Taiwan Dengue Model

Contact people
(1) Huey-Jen Su, amb.wu@msa.hinet.net
Created

2014-02-13 23:09:20+00:00

Modified

2016-03-23 17:36:02.581419+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

This model uses weather as an indicator for predicting incidence of Dengue in a major metropolitan city. Temperature and relative humidity were found to be statistically associated with the incidence of Dengue, and were included in the ARIMA model.

Question

What is the association between weather variability and the occurence of dengue fever at the city-level?

Purpose

Assessment

Scope

Disease and Location

Goals
(1) Baseline awareness
(2) Early warning
Decision support

No

Based on
Products
(1) Disease incidence
Documents
(1) Document Wu PC, Guo HR, Lung SC, Lint CY, Su HJ: Weather as an effective predictor for occurrence of deng… (2007)
Notes

Application

Diseases
(1) Dengue
Locations
(1) Location Kaohsuing City
Status current
(2) Location Taiwan
Status current

Utility and readiness

Readiness

Study

Organizations
(1) Organization National Cheng Kung University (NCKU)
Role Developer
Independently tested

No

Compared to model

No

Compared to reality

Yes

Verification & validation notes

Not mathematically verified. Validated with data from the same location.

Sensitivity analysis

No

Uncertainty documented

No

Availability

Developer contacted

No

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name Daily notification of dengue fever cases in Taiwan 1998-2003
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes
(2) Name Monthly notifications of cases from government publication 1988-1997
Category Official Reports
Subject
URL
Notes
(3) Name Temperature, Humidity, Rainfall
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes
(4) Name Vector Density Data from 1998-2003
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes