Identification

Name

Spatio-temporal Climate-Based EWS Dengue model

Contact people
(1) George Christakos, gchrista@mail.sdsu.edu
Created

2014-02-03 23:25:37+00:00

Modified

2016-03-23 17:38:09.278068+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

This Early Warning System (EWS) model of Dengue Fever integrates large-scale climatic factors that account for temporal trends, health data sets with varying levels of uncertainty, and space-time dependent functions. The results give a one week prediction time.

Question

Will an integrated spatial-temporal model, based on core and site-specific knowledge, help predict DF distributions for Taiwan?

Purpose

Prediction

Scope

Disease and Location

Goals
(1) Early warning
Decision support

No

Based on
Products
(1) Disease incidence
Documents
(1) Document Yu HL, Yang SJ, Yen HJ, Christakos G: A spatio-temporal climate-based model of early dengue feveā€¦ (2011)
Notes
General notes

The BME analysis establishes the relationship and temporal lags between weekly dengue incidences and the climatic variables, as well as the Breteau index.

Application

Diseases
(1) Dengue
Locations
(1) Location Taiwan
Status current

Utility and readiness

Readiness

Study

Organizations
(1) Organization National Science Council of Taiwan
Role Funding support
Independently tested

No

Compared to model

Yes

Compared to reality

Yes

Verification & validation notes

Not Verified. Validated with out-of-sample data

Sensitivity analysis

No

Availability

Developer contacted

No

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name Breteau index
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes
(2) Name DF cases
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes
(3) Name Monthly SOI data
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes
(4) Name Temperature and rainfall
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes