Identification

Name

AusSpread

Contact people
(1) Graeme Garner, Graeme.garner@daff.gov.au
Created

2013-05-30 18:19:16+00:00

Modified

2016-04-06 14:06:15.169609+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
(2) Risk Mapping
Overview

The model accommodates real farm boundary or point-location data, as well as synthesised data based on agricultural census and land use information. The model also allows for interactions between herds or flocks of different animal species and production type, and considers the role that such interactions are likely to play in the epidemiology of a regional outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The user can choose mitigations and eradication strategies from those that are currently described in Australia’s veterinary emergency plan. The model also allows the user to evaluate the impact of constraints on the availability of resources for mitigation or eradication measures. This model has also been adapted to simulate the spread of FMD in Texas.

Question

How far will an FMD outbreak spread?

Purpose

Forecasting

Scope

Platform

Goals
(1) Consequence management
(2) Early detection
(3) Situational awareness
Decision support

Yes

Based on
Simulation type
(1) Compartmental
Simulation update
(1) Stochastic
Methods
(1) Compartments/Modified SEIR
(2) Statistics/Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
Products
(1) Disease incidence
(2) Economic assessment
Documents
(1) Document Garner MG, Beckett SD: Modelling the spread of foot-and-mouth disease in Australia (2008)
Notes
(2) Document Beckett S, Garner MG: Simulating disease spread within a geographic information system environme… (2007)
Notes
(3) Document Ward MP, Highfield LD, Vongseng P, Garner MG: Simulation of foot-and-mouth disease spread within… (2009)
Notes
(4) Document Looney JC: Comparative cost analysis of alternative animal tracing strategies directed toward Fo… (2009)
Notes
(5) Document Hagerman AD, McCarl BA, Carpenter TE, Ward MP, O'Brien J: Emergency vaccination to control Foot-… (2011)
Notes

Application

Diseases
(1) Foot-and-mouth disease
Locations
(1) Location Australia and New Zealand
Status
(2) Location Australia
Status current
(3) Location United States of America
Status
(4) Location Texas
Status current

Utility and readiness

Maintenance status

Active

Readiness

Deployed

Organizations
(1) Organization Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (Australia)
Role

Availability

URL http://www.daff.gov.au/animal-plant-health/animal/modelling/fmd
Implementation language

MapBasic

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name National Livestock Movement Model
Category Established Databases
Subject Host Population: Mobility
URL
Notes
(2) Name Surveys of Livestock and Industry Experts
Category Personal Communication
Subject
URL
Notes