Identification

Name

Spatial-Temporal Ecologial Niche Dengue Model

Contact people
(1) Townsend Peterson, town@ku.edu
Created

2014-01-27 22:08:44+00:00

Modified

2015-12-04 16:36:40.452639+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Risk Mapping
Overview

This ecological niche model uses a genetic algorithm to model monthly spatial predictions of Aedes aegypti in Mexico. The predictions coincide with the monthly human disease occurrences, suggesting that the ecological niche modeling translates to prediction of transmission of dengue virus to humans.

Question

Can ecological niche modeling be used to predict the spatial and temporal dynamics of vector populations and consequence human outbreak occurrences?

Purpose

Prediction

Scope

Disease and Location

Goals
(1) Baseline awareness
(2) Early warning
Decision support

Unknown

Based on
Methods
(1) Machine learning/Genetic algorithm
Products
(1) Disease incidence
(2) Ecological niche model
(3) Spatial risk map

Application

Diseases
(1) Dengue
Locations
(1) Location Mexico
Status current

Utility and readiness

Organizations
(1) Organization University of Kansas
Role Developer
(2) Organization Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Role Developer
(3) Organization National Science Foundation (NSF)
Role Funding support
Independently tested

No

Compared to model

Yes

Compared to reality

Yes

Verification & validation notes

This model has been mathematically verified. It was validated with out-of-sample data

Sensitivity analysis

Yes

Availability

Developer contacted

No

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name Human case data
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes
(2) Name Larval surveys of Aedes aegypti
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes
(3) Name NDVI
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes