Identification

Name

Cholera Urban Vaccine Model

Contact people
(1) Justin Lessler, jlessler@jhsph.edu
Created

2013-11-25 20:41:35+00:00

Modified

2016-01-14 20:10:24.455840+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

This spatially explicit model of cholera was fit to data from a 2008 epidemic in Bissau City. The model was used to examine the impact of various limited vaccine distribution strategies to cholera in Guinea Bissau. The general findings of this model can be applied to cholera control in urban settings.

Question

What is the best way to distribute a limited vaccine supply so as to reduce the number of cases?

Purpose

Assessment

Scope

Disease and Location

Goals
(1) Baseline awareness
(2) Consequence management
(3) Situational awareness
Decision support

Unknown

Based on
Simulation type
(1) Metapopulation
Simulation update
(1) Discrete time
Methods
(1) Compartments/SIR
(2) Statistics/Bayesian Parameter Estimation
(3) Statistics/Deviance information criterion
Products
(1) Control effort effectiveness
(2) Disease incidence
(3) Epidemic Spread
Documents
(1) Document Azman AS, Luquero FJ, Rodrigues A, Palma PP, Grais RF, et al.: Urban cholera transmission hotspo… (2012)
Notes Journal Article
(2) Document Luquero FJ, Banga CN, Remartinez D, Palma PP, Baron E: Cholera epidemic in Guinea-Bissau (2008):… (2011)
Notes Epidemiological Data on the outbreak used to fit the model
General notes

In urban settings, public health officials will often know which areas of a city were hotspots of cholera transmission in the past or where conditions promote efficient transmission. When there is limited vaccine, this paper suggests that targeting reactive vaccination at these areas will lead to the greatest reduction in cases both in these areas and elsewhere in the city.

Application

Diseases
(1) Cholera
Locations
(1) Location Africa
Status current
(2) Location Bissau City
Status current

Utility and readiness

Readiness

Study

Organizations
(1) Organization Department of Epidemiology (JHU)
Role Model design
(2) Organization Fogarty International Center (NIH) (FIC)
Role Model design
Compared to model

No

Compared to reality

Yes

Verification & validation notes

Only validated with data from the same location

Sensitivity analysis

Yes

Uncertainty documented

Yes

Availability

Developer contacted

Yes

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name Census data
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes
(2) Name Patient Information from Guinea-Bissau MoH
Category Clinic/Health Care Provider Records
Subject
URL
Notes
(3) Name Residential areas
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes