Identification

Name

CDC Haiti Real-time Cholera Model

Contact people
(1) J.Y. Abrams, JAbrams@cdc.gov
Created

2013-11-15 16:19:23+00:00

Modified

2015-12-04 16:23:52.196519+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

A modified SIR model with an environmental component was built to predict the future extent of the Haiti cholera outbreak. The model ran projections three times throughout the course of the outbreak, with small changes in each iteration as more data became available.

Question

What will the number of cholera cases and hospitalizations be after one year?

Purpose

Forecasting

Scope

Disease and Location

Goals
(1) Consequence management
(2) Situational awareness
Decision support

Yes

Based on
Methods
(1) Compartments/SIR
(2) Differential Equations
Products
(1) Disease incidence
Documents
(1) Document Abrams JY, Copeland JR, Tauxe RV, Date KA, Belay ED, et al.: Real-time modelling used for outbre… (2013)
Notes
(2) Document Abrams JY, Copeland JR, Tauxe RV, Date KA, Belay ED, et al.: Supplemental: Real-time modelling u… (2012)
Notes

Application

Diseases
(1) Cholera
Locations
(1) Location Haiti
Status

Utility and readiness

Readiness

Deployed

Organizations
(1) Organization Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Role Developer
Independently tested

No

Compared to model

Yes

Compared to reality

Yes

Verification & validation notes

Only validated with data from the same location.

Sensitivity analysis

Yes

Uncertainty documented

Yes

Availability

Developer contacted

No

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name Academic Reports/ Parameter Estimation
Category Official Reports
Subject
URL
Notes
(2) Name Number of weekly hospitalizations from the MSPP
Category Official Reports
Subject
URL
Notes