Identification

Name

InterSpread Plus

Short name

ISP

Contact people
(1) M.A. Stevenson, m.stevenson@massey.ac.nz
Created

2014-08-21 21:52:08+00:00

Modified

2015-12-01 19:38:16.047143+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

InterSpread is a computer program designed to provide a framework for modelling the spread of infectious diseases. The 2001 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Great Britain was the first time InterSpread was used as a decision support tool during a large, multicentred epidemic as it was evolving. This epidemic provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the model's useability and to quantify its ability to predict the location and time of incident FMD-infected premises. In parallel with further modelling work that evaluated strategies to reduce the size of FMD epidemics following hypothetical incursions into Great Britain InterSpread's design was rationalised with the intention of making it sufficiently flexible to simulate a range of disease conditions (for example avian influenza and classical swine fever) – not just FMD. The result is a revised version of the InterSpread model which is referred to as ‘InterSpread Plus.’

Question

How far will an FMD outbreak spread?

Purpose

Forecasting

Scope

Platform

Goals
(1) Consequence management
(2) Situational awareness
Decision support

Yes

Based on
Simulation type
(1) Metapopulation
Simulation update
(1) Stochastic
Methods
(1) Compartments/SIR
(2) Statistics/Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
Products
(1) Disease incidence
(2) Occurrence map
Documents
(1) Document Stevenson MA, Sanson RL, Stern MW, O'Leary BD, Sujau M, et al.: InterSpread Plus: a spatial and … (2013)
Notes
(2) Document Morris RS, Stern MW, Stevenson MA, Wilesmith JW, Sanson RL: Predictive spatial modelling of alte… (2001)
Notes
(3) Document Keeling MJ: Models of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (2005)
Notes
(4) Document Sanson, RL: The development of a decision support system for an animal disease emergency (1993)
Notes
(5) Document Yoon H, Wee SH, Stevenson MA, O'Leary BD: Simulation analyses to evaluate alternative control st… (2006)
Notes
(6) Document Boklund A, Toft N, Alban L, Uttenthal A: Comparing the epidemiological and economic effects of c… (2009)
Notes
(7) Document Vandendriessche Y, Gellynck X, Saatkamp H, Dewulf J, Van Steenwinkel S, et al.: Economic evaluat… (2010)
Notes
(8) Document Longworth N, Mourits MC, Saatkamp HW: Economic analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands II: C… (2012)
Notes
(9) Document Nigsch A, Costard S, Jones BA, Pfeiffer DU, Wieland B: Stochastic spatio-temporal modelling of A… (2013)
Notes
(10) Document Halasa T, Boklund A, Stockmarr A, Enoe C, Christiansen LE: A comparison between two simulation m… (2014)
Notes

Application

Diseases
(1) Avian influenza A
(2) Classical swine fever
(3) Foot-and-mouth disease
Locations
(1) Location Korea, Republic of
Status
(2) Location Belgium
Status
(3) Location Netherlands
Status
(4) Location United Kingdom
Status

Utility and readiness

Maintenance status

Active

Readiness

Configurable Generic Framework

Organizations
(1) Organization Epicentre (Massey University)
Role
Compared to model

Yes

Verification & validation notes

This model has been validated with real data, however its operational use has been criticized.

It has been used in the following scenarios:
* Prediction of dynamics of 2001 UK outbreak using contact-tracing and 2001 census
data (Morris et al., 2001).

* Simulation to replicate 2002 outbreak in Korea and explore alternative strategies (Yoon et al., 2006).

* Simulation of hypothetical scenarios in Switzerland to examine the effectiveness of the
current Swiss FMD control measures (Bachmann et al., 2005).

* Part of a comparison project run by the Quadrilateral countries in 2005 together with AusSpread and NAADSM (Dubé et al., 2006, Dubé et al., 2007).

Availability

URL http://www.interspreadplus.com/Home.asp
URL (alternate) http://www.interspreadplus.com/info.asp
Computational platform

Cross Platform

Implementation language

C++

URL (source code) http://www.interspreadplus.com/downloads.asp
Adaptation cost

Hours

Availability notes

Website recommends 7 to 10 day training course.

Input