Identification

Name

Malaria Elimination Model

Contact people
(1) Richard Maude, richardmaude@gmail.com
Created

2013-11-19 22:40:50+00:00

Modified

2015-12-04 15:26:16.538154+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

This model examines the elimination potential of all the current major malaria control interventions, alone and in combination, in a variety of settings. It is a deterministic population dynamic model and is coded in Microsoft Silverlight. The model is intended to allow policy makers and public health specialists to enter their own data specific to their location and run the model themselves using it as a tool to explore the possible relative impact of different local elimination strategies.

Question

What is the potential impact of available control interventions?

Purpose

Assessment

Goals
(1) Consequence management
(2) Early warning
Decision support

Unknown

Based on
Simulation type
(1) Compartmental
Simulation update
(1) Deterministic
Methods
(1) Compartments/SIR
Products
(1) Control effort effectiveness
(2) Disease prevalence
(3) Epidemic Spread
Documents
(1) Document White LJ, Maude RJ, Pongtavornpinyo W, Saralamba S, Aguas R, et al.: The role of simple mathemat… (2009)
Notes
(2) Document Maude RJ, Saralamba S, Lewis A, Sherwood D, White NJ, et al.: Modelling Malaria elimination on t… (2011)
Notes
(3) Document Aguas R, White LJ, Snow RW, Gomes GM: Prospects for malaria eradication in sub-Saharan Africa. (2008)
Notes This paper describes the model that was used by the developers of the Malaria Elimination model as its foundation
General notes

This project provides an accessible and user-friendly platform for presenting mathematical models on the internet that is suitable for use by non-modellers. In the initial phase, a simple model of malaria elimination is presented that is not suitable for detailed planning of real-world strategies. As is the ideal for mathematical modelling, this will be developed as an ongoing iterative process of collaboration with the end users of the modelling results to produce modelling tools that are increasingly useful and relevant. Although it currently hosts a single model, multiple different models will be available on the site designed to answer specific and pressing questions from policymakers. It is for the purposes of understanding the more general behaviour of malaria transmission specifically during elimination and could be used as a first step by policy makers for strategy planning for a few years ahead.

Application

Diseases
(1) Malaria

Utility and readiness

Readiness

Deployed

Organizations
(1) Organization Wellcome Trust
Role Funding support
(2) Organization Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU)
Role Model design
(3) Organization University of Oxford (U OX)
Role
Compared to model

Yes

Compared to reality

No

Verification & validation notes

This model has not been validated or mathematically verified.

Sensitivity analysis

Yes

Availability

URL http://elimination.tropmedres.ac/#/Model
URL (alternate) http://www.tropmedres.ac/departments-units/mathematical-modelling/malaria-elimination
Computational platform

Cross Platform

Implementation language

Microsoft Siverlight

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name Population demographics
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes