Identification

Name

Rinaldo Cholera in Haiti Model

Contact people
(1) Andrea Rinaldo, andrea.rinaldo@epfl.ch
(2) Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe, irodrigu@princeton.edu
Created

2013-10-29 21:53:08+00:00

Modified

2016-01-14 20:07:50.510883+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

This model is an improvement over a basic model built by Bertuzzo et al 2011, that provided early prediction of the Haitian epidemic. This model has been refined to include additional processes, and verified through hind casting. The model also forecasts seasonal epidemics through 2014.

Question

What are the longer-term predictions for cholera in Haiti?

Purpose

Forecasting

Scope

Disease and Location

Goals
(1) Early warning
Decision support

Unknown

Based on
Methods
(1) Statistics/Bootstrapping
(2) Statistics/Gravity model
(3) Statistics/Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
Products
(1) Disease incidence
Documents
(1) Document Rinaldo A, Bertuzzo E, Mari L, Rodrigueaz-Iturbe I: Reassessment of the 2010-2011 Haiti Cholera … (2012)
Notes

Application

Diseases
(1) Cholera
Locations
(1) Location Haiti
Status

Utility and readiness

Readiness

Study

Organizations
(1) Organization European Research Council (ERC)
Role Funding support
(2) Organization James S. McDonnell Foundation
Role Funding support
(3) Organization Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)
Role Funding support
(4) Organization Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL)
Role
Independently tested

No

Compared to model

Yes

Compared to reality

Yes

Verification & validation notes

Only validated with data from same location. The model was verified.

Sensitivity analysis

Yes

Uncertainty documented

Yes

Availability

Developer contacted

No

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL
Notes
(2) Name Decadal rainfall estimates for 2010-2011
Category Established Databases
Subject
URL http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/
Notes
(3) Name Local population abundance from a remotely sensed map of population distribution
Category Established Databases
Subject Host Population: Demographics
URL
Notes
(4) Name US Geological Survey/Digital elevation maps to delineate river basins
Category Established Databases
Subject Disease: Epidemiological
URL
Notes