Identification

Name

Cholera Forecasting Model

Contact people
(1) Aaron King, kingaa@umich.edu
Created

2013-10-21 22:27:14+00:00

Modified

2015-12-01 19:55:36.446127+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

This model explains historical cholera epidemiological data in Bengal by making an assumption of the distribution ratio of symptomatic to asymptomatic cases and the rate of waning immunity. Three mechanistic models (SIRS model, two-path model, and environmental-phage model) are formulated in order to tease apart immunological and environmental consequences.

Question

What is a realistic estimate for the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases and the rate of waning immunity and what role do inapparent infections play?

Purpose

Forecasting

Scope

Specific disease application

Goals
(1) Situational awareness
Decision support

No

Based on
Methods
(1) Compartments/SIRS
(2) Statistics/Akaike information criterion (AIC)
Products
(1) Control effort effectiveness
(2) Disease incidence
(3) Resource plan
(4) Science of disease process
(5) Science of transmission
Documents
(1) Document King AA, Ionides EL, Pascual M, Bouma MJ: Inapparent infections and Cholera dynamics (2008)
Notes

Application

Diseases
(1) Cholera
Locations
(1) Location India
Status current

Utility and readiness

Readiness

Study

Organizations
(1) Organization National Institutes of Health Ecology of Infectious Diseases Program (NSF)
Role
(2) Organization National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Role
Independently tested

No

Compared to model

Yes

Compared to reality

Yes

Verification & validation notes

Fitted to historical data. Validated with out-of-sample data.

Sensitivity analysis

Yes

Uncertainty documented

Partly

Availability

Implementation language

R

Developer contacted

No

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name Monthly cholera death counts in each of the 26 districts over the period 1891-1940
Category Clinic/Health Care Provider Records
Subject Disease: Epidemiological
URL
Notes