Identification

Name

Liverpool Malaria Model

Short name

LMM

Contact people
(1) Volker Ermert, vermert@meteo.uni-koeln.de
(2) Andrew Morse, A.P.Morse@liverpool.ac.uk
Created

2014-05-14 16:05:30+00:00

Modified

2015-12-01 19:50:43.437763+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

A weather driven host-pathogen-vector malaria model able to simulate malaria transmission in epidemic and endemic malaria areas. LMM has been used for both seasonal epidemic forecasting and climate change applications. The LMM simulates the daily spread of malaria using daily mean temperature and a 10-day accumulated precipitation measure.

Question

How does malaria spread within the human and mosquito population forced by two meteorological variables, daily mean temperature as well as daily precipitation amounts?

Purpose

Forecasting

Scope

Specific disease application

Goals
(1) Early warning
Based on
Simulation update
(1) Stochastic
Methods
(1) Statistics/Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
Products
(1) Disease incidence
(2) Spatio-temporal risk map
Documents
(1) Document Hoshen MB, Morse AP: A weather-driven model of malaria transmission (2004)
Notes
(2) Document Ermert V, Fink AH, Jones AE, Morse AP: Development of a new version of the Liverpool Malaria Mod… (2011)
Notes
(3) Document Ermert V, Fink AH, Jones AE, Morse AP: Development of a new version of the Liverpool Malaria Mod… (2011)
Notes
(4) Document Caminade C, Kovats S, Rocklov J, Tompkins AM, Morse AP, et al.: Impact of climate change on glob… (2014)
Notes
(5) Document Jones AE, Morse AP: Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Afri… (2012)
Notes
(6) Document Ermert V, Fink AH, Paeth H, Morse AP: The impact of regional climate change on Malaria risk due … (2012)
Notes
(7) Document Jones AE, Morse AP: Application and validation of a seasonal ensemble prediction system using a … (2010)
Notes

Application

Diseases
(1) Malaria
Locations
(1) Location Western Africa
Status current
(2) Location Senegal
Status current
(3) Location Burkina Faso
Status current

Utility and readiness

Maintenance status

Active

Readiness

Deployed

Organizations
(1) Organization European Union (EU)
Role
Verification & validation notes

Validation performed for West Africa. Validation performed for 20+ years in Botswana against a published malaria index.

Sensitivity analysis

Yes

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name Land use and cover according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
Category Established Databases
Subject Environment: Land Use
URL
Notes
(2) Name REgional Climate MOdel (REMO)
Category Established Databases
Subject Environment: Climate
URL
Notes The modeled was first validated against a published clinical malaria index of 20+ years from Botswana. The malaria model is being driven by both reanalysis and seasonal hindcasts from ensemble prediction systems. Data from the REgional climate MOdel (REMO). For validation of the model, they used temperature and precipitation measurements from synoptic weather stations across West Africa. Weather station data were gathered from the archive of the German Weather Service (DWD; German Weather Service) as well as from the Federal climate complex Global Surface Summary of Day version 7 (GSOD; from the US National Climate Data Centre) data.
(3) Name Scientific literature on vector and parasite
Category Official Reports
Subject Disease: Natural History
URL
Notes