Identification

Name

Van Den Broek and Heesterbeek Model

Contact people
(1) Jan Van Den Broek, Assistant professor, J.vandenBroek@uu.nl
Created

2013-10-22 20:58:03+00:00

Modified

2015-12-01 19:49:30.697381+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

This paper proposes a generalized non-liner model that can incorporate non homogeneous births and deaths in its outbreak simulations. They then apply this to modified model to three outbreaks: Dutch classical swine fever in 1997 to 1998, the foot-and-mouth disease in the UK in 2001, and the Dutch avian influenza outbreak in 2003.

Question

Forecasting the spread of a disease (FMD, CSF, or Avian influenza) taking into consideration non homogeneous births and deaths in epidemic outbreak data.

Purpose

Forecasting

Goals
(1) Situational awareness
Based on
Methods
(1) Statistics/Akaike information criterion (AIC)
(2) Regression
Products
(1) Disease incidence
(2) Disease prevalence
Documents
(1) Document Van Den Broek J, Heesterbeek H: Nonhomogeneous birth and death models for epidemic outbreak dat… (2007)
Notes

Application

Diseases
(1) Avian influenza A
(2) Foot-and-mouth disease
(3) Swine influenza
Locations
(1) Location Netherlands
Status
(2) Location United Kingdom
Status

Utility and readiness

Readiness

Study

Organizations
(1) Organization University of Utrecht
Role

Availability

Availability notes

Unknown

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name Weekly case count epidemiological data from outbreaks
Category Official Reports
Subject Disease: Epidemiological
URL
Notes