Identification

Name

Vector Borne Borne Disease Community Model of ICTP, Trieste

Short name

VECTRI

Contact people
(1) Adrian Tompkins, tompkins-AT-ictp.it
Created

2013-10-22 21:00:53+00:00

Modified

2015-11-23 17:53:41.268717+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

VECTRI is a mathematical model for malaria transmission that accounts for the impact of temperature and rainfall variability on the development cycles of the malaria vector. The model is designed to run over regional to continental scales at high spatial resolutions of up to around 5-10km using a daily timestep for the integration.

Question

Understanding malaria transmission at a regional level, through the addition of climate and population density parameters

Purpose

Forecasting

Scope

Disease

Goals
(1) Consequence management
(2) Early detection
(3) Early warning
Based on
Products
(1) Climate change impact assessment
(2) Disease incidence
(3) Science of transmission
(4) Spatial risk map
(5) Spatio-temporal risk map
Documents
(1) Document Diro GT, Timpkins AM, Bi X: Dynamical downscaling of ECMWF ensemble seasonal forecasts over East… (2012)
Notes
General notes

The model incorporates surface hydrology and population interaction to attempt to address the following questions;
1. Can malaria epidemics be predicted in advance?
2. Is there useful information that can be derived in endemic areas (e.g. earlier than usual onset)?
3. Does a model need to know about microclimates in temperature and humidity in order to predict regional scale malaria intensity?

Application

Diseases
(1) Malaria
Locations
(1) Location Africa
Status projected
(2) Location Eastern Africa
Status current

Utility and readiness

Readiness

Deployed

Organizations
(1) Organization European Union (EU)
Role
Verification & validation notes

Model is fully coupled with monthly and seasonal forecasting system

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name
Category Official Reports
Subject Disease: Natural History
URL
Notes
(2) Name
Category Established Databases
Subject Environment: Climate
URL
Notes
(3) Name
Category Established Databases
Subject Host Population: Demographics
URL
Notes
(4) Name
Category Established Databases
Subject Reservoir / Vector
URL
Notes
Related systems
(1) System AfriPop ()
Notes
(2) System Gridded Population of the World and Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GPWv3 and GRUMPv1)
Notes