Identification

Name

Chatterjee, Malaria Incidence Forecasting

Contact people
(1) Ram Rup Sarkar, Senior Scientist, rr.sarkar@ncl.res.in
Created

2013-10-22 20:09:31+00:00

Modified

2015-11-21 15:06:49.122371+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

This models works to forecasting malaria incidence in Chennai, India and predict future disease incidence.

Question

What is the incidence of malaria in a specific location?

Purpose

Forecasting

Goals
(1) Early detection
(2) Situational awareness
Based on
Products
(1) Disease incidence
Documents
(1) Document Chatterjee C, Sarkar RR: Multi-Step polynomial regression method to model and forecast Malaria i… (2000)
Notes
General notes

The authors developed a simple non-linear regression methodology in modeling and forecasting malaria incidence in Chennai city, India, and predicted future disease incidence with high confidence level. They considered three types of data to develop the regression methodology: a longer time series data of Slide Positivity Rates (SPR) of malaria; a smaller time series data (deaths due to Plasmodium vivax) of one year; and spatial data (zonal distribution of P. vivax deaths) for the city along with the climatic factors, population and previous incidence of the disease. They performed variable selection by simple correlation study, identification of the initial relationship between variables through non-linear curve fitting and used multistep methods for induction of variables in the non-linear regression analysis along with applied Gauss-Markov models, and ANOVA for testing the prediction, validity and constructing the confidence intervals. The results showed the applicability of
their method for different types of data, the autoregressive nature of forecasting, and high prediction power for both SPR and P. vivax deaths.

Application

Diseases
(1) Malaria
Locations
(1) Location Chennai Tamilnadu
Status current

Utility and readiness

Readiness

Study

Organizations
(1) Organization Department of Science and Technology (India) (DST)
Role
(2) Organization National Chemical Laboratory (India) (NCL)
Role
Verification & validation notes

This model has only been validated with data from the same location.

Availability

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name
Category Established Databases
Subject Host Population: Demographics
URL
Notes
(2) Name
Category Official Reports
Subject Disease: Epidemiological
URL
Notes
(3) Name
Category Established Databases
Subject Environment: Climate
URL
Notes