Identification

Name

Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa

Short name

MARA/ARMA

Contact people
(1) Marlies Craig, Principal Investigator, maralite@mrc.ac.za; craigm@mrc.ac.za
Created

2013-07-11 14:22:45+00:00

Modified

2015-12-01 19:31:34.284181+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Risk Mapping
Overview

The goal is to map malaria risk in Africa through collection of published and unpublished malaria data and spatial modeling of malaria distribution, seasonality and endemicity.
The MARA LITe (Low End information tool) is a user-friendly tool designed to access products of the MARA/ARMA (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa / Atlas du Risque de la Malaria en Afrique) project.

MARA LITe can be used to create a baseline against which future increases or decreases in malaria can be quantified. These baselines can be used in conjunction with climate change scenarios to project possible populations at risk and future prevalence of Falciparum malaria for a given region.

Question

What are the current geographic boundaries and baselines of malaria?

Purpose

Prediction

Scope

Disease and Location

Goals
(1) Baseline awareness
(2) Early warning
(3) Situational awareness
Decision support

Yes

Based on
Methods
(1) Statistics/Latin hypercube sampling
Products
(1) Occurrence map
(2) Spatial risk map
Documents
(1) Document Adjuik M, Bagayoko M, Binka F, Coetzee M, Cox J, et al.: Towards an atlas of Malaria risk in Afr… (1998)
Notes
General notes

The MARA/ARMA collaboration was initiated to provide an Atlas of malaria for Africa, containing relevant information for rational and targeted implementation of malaria control.

MARA LITe was developed and produced within the Malaria Research Programme of the South African Medical Research Council, which operates as the main MARA/ARMA investigating centre.

MARA is a biological model of Falciparum malaria transmission that sets decision rules which govern how minimum and mean temperature constrain the development of the parasite and the vector and how precipitation affects survival and breeding. MARA determined the decision rules by reviewing laboratory and field studies throughout Sub-Saharan Africa and looking at current malaria distribution maps.

This biological model approximates the current boundaries of malaria distribution across the continent quite well. The model uses three variables to determine any geographic location’s climatic suitability: mean monthly temperature, winter minimum temperature, and total cumulative monthly precipitation. An important distinction between this model and others is that the MARA decision rules were developed using fuzzy logic to resolve the uncertainty in defining distinct boundaries dividing malarious from nonmalarious regions.

The MARA/ARMA decision rules stipulate that both temperature and precipitation have to be favorable at the same time of the year to allow transmission, and suitable conditions have to continue long enough for the transmission cycle to be completed. Five months were considered a sufficient length of time for conditions to be suitable for stable transmission. MARA LITe is a stand-alone query system of the MARA database. MARA LITe converts the MARA relational database (29 separate tables) into a flat structure.

Application

Diseases
(1) Malaria
Locations
(1) Location Africa
Status
(2) Location Angola
Status
(3) Location Benin
Status
(4) Location Botswana
Status
(5) Location Burkina Faso
Status
(6) Location Cameroon
Status
(7) Location Cape Verde
Status
(8) Location Central African Republic
Status
(9) Location Chad
Status
(10) Location Congo, Republic of the
Status
(11) Location Côte d'Ivoire
Status
(12) Location Congo, Democratic Republic of the
Status
(13) Location Djibouti
Status
(14) Location Equatorial Guinea
Status
(15) Location Eritrea
Status
(16) Location Ethiopia
Status
(17) Location Gabon
Status
(18) Location Gambia
Status
(19) Location Ghana
Status
(20) Location Guinea
Status
(21) Location Guinea-Bissau
Status
(22) Location Kenya
Status
(23) Location Liberia
Status
(24) Location Madagascar
Status
(25) Location Malawi
Status
(26) Location Mali
Status
(27) Location Mauritania
Status
(28) Location Mozambique
Status
(29) Location Niger
Status
(30) Location Nigeria
Status
(31) Location Rwanda
Status
(32) Location Sao Tome and Principe
Status
(33) Location Senegal
Status
(34) Location Sierra Leone
Status
(35) Location Somalia
Status
(36) Location South Africa
Status
(37) Location Sudan
Status
(38) Location Swaziland
Status
(39) Location Togo
Status
(40) Location Uganda
Status
(41) Location Tanzania
Status
(42) Location Zambia
Status
(43) Location Zimbabwe
Status

Utility and readiness

Readiness

Deployed

Organizations
(1) Organization South African Medical Research Council (SA MRC)
Role Funding support
(2) Organization International Development Research Centre of Canada (IDRC)
Role
(3) Organization Wellcome Trust
Role
(4) Organization Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (TPH)
Role
Verification & validation notes

MARA has not been validated outside of Sub-Saharan Africa. Mathematically verified.

Availability

URL http://www.mara.org.za/
URL (alternate) http://www.mara.org.za/lite/download.htm
Computational platform

PC

URL (source code) http://www.mara.org.za/lite/download.htm#Installation
Availability notes

This model is in a downloadable format. Use is relatively simple.

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name International Archives in Africa and in Europe (WHO Geneva, Paris, Antwerpen, Lissabon)
Category Established Databases
Subject Host Population: Demographics
URL
Notes
(2) Name Medline and Embase
Category Established Databases
Subject Environment: Climate
URL
Notes
(3) Name Relevant Ministries, Universities and Research Institutions
Category Established Databases
Subject Reservoir / Vector
URL
Notes
(4) Name Scientific Journals, Ministries of Health Reports
Category Official Reports
Subject Disease: Epidemiological
URL
Notes