Identification

Name

Dengue Vaccine Simulation

Contact people
(1) Ira Longini, Professor of Biostatistics, ilongini@afl.edu
Created

2013-05-21 14:38:59+00:00

Modified

2016-01-27 19:37:09.756731+00:00

Overview

Types
(1) Disease Dynamics
Overview

This is an individual-level, agent-based, (including both humans and mosquitoes) stochastic simulation model for dengue transmission and control in a semi-rural area in Thailand. It specifically forecasts the impact of vaccination in controlling dengue.

Question

Which vaccination strategy is most effective?

Purpose

Forecasting

Scope

Disease and Location

Goals
(1) Baseline awareness
(2) Consequence management
(3) Early warning
(4) Situational awareness
Decision support

Yes

Based on
Simulation type
(1) Agent-based
(2) Individual-based
Simulation update
(1) Stochastic
Methods
(1) Compartments/SEIR
Products
(1) Control effort effectiveness
Documents
(1) Document Chao DL, Halstead SB, Halloran ME, Longini Jr. IM: Controlling Dengue with vaccines in Thailand (2012)
Notes
General notes

The potential effectiveness of different dengue vaccination strategies using a model of dengue transmission in a Thai population was modeled. The individual-level stochastic model was developed to match the epidemiology of dengue in a population in semi-rural Thailand that has experienced hyperendemic dengue transmission for many years. Both single-year campaigns, in which part of the population is vaccinated well before the dengue season, and multi-year roll-outs, in which young children are vaccinated first and progressively older individuals are vaccinated in subsequent years as part of a catch-up campaign were modeled.

The model has been extensively documented in research papers but is not publicly available outside of these papers. The model has been developed for a specific location in Thailand, but if data sources are available for other regions the model developers believe that the model could be used in other geographic regions with hyperendemic dengue transmission.

Application

Diseases
(1) Dengue
Locations
(1) Location Bangkok
Status current
(2) Location Thailand
Status current

Utility and readiness

Readiness

Study

Organizations
(1) Organization Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS)
Role Funding support
(2) Organization Dengue Vaccine Initiative (DVI)
Role Funding support
(3) Organization University of Florida (UF)
Role Model design
Verification & validation notes

Not validated with real data. Mathematically verified.

Sensitivity analysis

Yes

Availability

Input

Input datasets
(1) Name Household microdata from the census of Ratchaburi province Thailand
Category Official Reports
Subject Host Population: Demographics
URL
Notes
(2) Name Serotype prevalence
Category Official Reports
Subject Disease: Epidemiological
URL
Notes
Related systems
(1) System Gridded Population of the World and Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GPWv3 and GRUMPv1)
Notes Population Density Data